The warnings came more than two months ago. The price of basic food products in Asia had been steadily rising and there had been concerns about the apparent food shortage. It had been all over the international press. One of the earliest reports was published by Reuters on Jan. 20; it was entitled “Across Asia, food is the new oil as prices surge.”

On Jan. 23, I wrote in my Web log:

“Prices of food in Asia have been going up, up and up and are not likely to go down soon.

“The cause is not a simple equation of high demand vis-a-vis dwindling supply. It’s more complicated than that. Inflation, oil prices, changing lifestyles and industrialization (some call it progress but that may be debatable) are all factors. If that sounds alien, consider the statement that ‘China has lost 6 percent of its arable land since 1996 to industrial encroachment and desertification.’ Translate that to the Philippine experience and ask how much agricultural lands have been converted to industrial uses.

“In fact, let’s go even farther. There is at least one case, that of Hacienda Looc, where agricultural land had been sold by the government for conversion to a resort community. That’s exchanging a steady supply of food for a few millions which will just go to pay off debts—a gesture that will not put food in the mouths of the hungry. As of November, 2007, the farmers were still asking the Department of Agrarian Reform to nullify the sale.”

Last week, the connection between the conversion of agricultural lands to industrial uses and the dwindling food supply was officially acknowledged by a spokesperson for the National Food Authority. It’s so ironic that most people see the rise of residential subdivisions and resorts as sure signs of modernization, progress, development and wealth. It’s even more ironic that the Department of Tourism has been, for years, luring foreigners and balikbayans into the country precisely by pointing out that we have a lot to offer in terms of residential condominiums, vacations spots and first-class resorts. If we take the statements of the NFA spokesperson side by side with the programs of the Department of Tourism, considering the apparent contradiction, it would seem that this government has no sensible long-term program.

The funny thing is how people equate the progress, development and wealth of the Philippines with the sprouting of high-rise condominiums and first-class resorts. Very few bother to ask who really makes money, and who goes hungry, with the rise of every resort, condominium or residential subdivision. Combine that with environmental concerns and we’re in deep shit.

Take Boracay, for instance. Yeah, right, Boracay gripe time again. How much criticism and concern have been heaped on the island because of the way resort and restaurant owners have been disposing of their garbage? No proper sewage, etcetera, etcetera. So there’s a new arrangement where the local government is supposedly taking an active role in protecting the environment. But as more Boracays are born, and the resort boom is happening all over the country, how long will it take before the government starts noticing how the environment is getting destroyed? It took much longer than a fortnight for the Boracay problem to get noticed. In fact, no howls were raised until the problem was in its critical stages.

Multiply the cases of Boracay and Looc and you have unimaginable pollution of the seas which translates to death of marine life, which in turn results in less fish in the markets. You have loss of food-producing lands and, in their place, h igh-class members-only resort communities. Do I have to repeat what high demand and low supply means in terms of prices?

More than that, the city lights effect get to the people. Why fish or plant vegetables when one can travel the few kilometers and sell cheap sunglasses to the tourists, offer massage—or even sex—services? Earning in dollars has never been so easy, eh? But then, that means less fishermen and less farmers. Ergo, less people to produce food.

Today, the rice shortage has become a political issue once more. But naturally.

In the Philippine Daily Inquirer yesterday, Neal Cruz wrote that where the opposition has failed in ousting President Gloria Arroyo, the food shortage just might accomplish. He thinks that when the looting and the rioting begin, the administration has no way to go but down.

Mr. Cruz is right. When the population faces starvation, issues like the global rise in food prices won’t matter. The crisis will mean one thing and one thing only—that the government failed. So, the administration finds itself in a fix. Solve the food shortage or risk getting booted. A hungry mob is an angry mob and no one will care if we’re just one of the many Asian countries with this food problem. The only thing that everyone will remember is who was in charge when the people went hungry. It will always be that person’s fault.

And I won’t disagree with that entirely because this government is at fault although not in the simplistic way that most people perceive. I have never agreed that it was in the best interests of the Philippines to get involved with globalization in the first place. I have always believed that an export-oriented economy was only feasible if the needs of the local population were taken care of first. In short, where domestic supply and demand are first satisfied, there’s no reason why any excess should not be exported. But when a country exports the bulk, and the best, of its agricultural produce, leaving little supply for a large domestic demand, then, there’s a serious problem with the vision of the economic think-tanks in the government.

I am still blaming Mrs. Arroyo for her role in getting the Philippines aboard the World Trade Organization. Damn American education has put it inside the heads of our leaders that what is best for America must necessarily be what’s best for us. Where the heck common sense has gone, I will probably never find out.

April Fool’s Day acquires a new dimension for Filipinos this year.